Punjab Assembly polls 2017 - Part III (Mission MALWA)

Before making any tall claims about formation of the govt. in Punjab, it is important to understand the region-wise distribution of Legislative Assembly seats in Punjab. Punjab comprises three regions namely Majha, Doaba and Malwa. There are 117 assembly constituencies in the state. The delimitation process in assembly segments has changed the number of constituencies in the regions benefiting the already dominant Malwa by increasing four seats two each from Majha and Doaba. This development not only increased the electoral importance of the region but also became beneficial to the SAD politically. It must be mentioned here that all the Chief Ministers of the state, except one, have been from Malwa region since the reorganization of Punjab in 1966. There has been a complete dominance of this region in state politics.

Region wise Seats

	Seats in 2007	Seats in 2012	Change
Majha	27	25	-2
Doaba	25	23	-2
Malwa	65	69	+4

So, a simple equation about winning the election and forming the government is to win over the Malwa region. Though in 2012 elections the SAD rebel and former Finance Minister of the state failed miserably to fetch even a single seat for "Sanjha Morcha" but hopes are high for Bhagwant Mann for the upcoming 2017 assembly polls. Coincidentally, both Manpreet Badal and Bhagwant Mann are also from the Malwa region making it not only the center of power but also the center for high political activism and political rebellion. Though Manpreet Badal lost by a small margin from Bathinda constituency and Mann made a huge victory from Sangrur constituency in the 2014 parliamentary elections, both of them will be the key players in 2017. Bhagwant Mann also broke away from PPP to join AAP and proved his decision worthy by winning the Sangrur constituency and becoming the leading face of AAP in Punjab and the most likely leader to be projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate for 2017 assembly polls. Though Mann's opportunism proved fruitful for him personally but such opportunism is justified to boost the political careers because even if we look at the careers of our last two Chief Ministers i.e. Capt. and Badal, both have switched political parties at some point of time in the initial stages of their political careers until they became established brands of Punjab politics. And thanks to the leaders like Badal, Tohra and Simranjit Singh Mann for the bifurcation of Shiromani Akali Dal into (B)- Badal faction and (A)- Amritsar faction.

The most interesting thing would be to notice that how Bhagwant Mann and Manpreet Badal will come together to win over Malwa region and make it their stronghold because they will definitely need each other's support to win over the astute SAD lead by Badal and Majithia and the unpredictable Congress lead by Captain and Bajwa.

I will definitely touch the economic aspect of Malwa region and the other dynamics of Punjab politics in my upcoming articles on this subject.

Punjab Assembly Polls 2017 - Part II

As a sequel to my article "Punjab Assembly polls 2017 - Part I", I felt driven to write the second part of this article after observing the political show on a religious platform during the celebration of the 350th anniversary of the foundation of Anandpur Sahib. Coincidentally, we have also seen the 40th anniversary of the deceleration of the internal emergency in Punjab and the subsequent announcement of the President's rule in 1975. This is the area where I can pin-point the lack of organization, professionalism and understanding between the ruling parties of the state. As their infighting had entered the public domain after the cancellation of the PM's visit on the occasion, the CM did his best to cover-up his absence and soothe the hot-headed young leaders of both the parties.

Actually, this is exactly the reason behind SAD and BJP running together. Their sink and swim relationship is completely based upon the longevity and well-being of the honorable CM of Punjab Mr. Parkash Singh Badal because of his accommodating and liberal nature. The BJP's state leadership has also made a public deceleration about their complete intolerance for the alliance under the leadership of the Deputy CM. On the other hand, the Deputy CM and his brother-in-law Majithia are considered to be highly aggressive and uncompromising and they have repeatedly shown their intolerance for BJP out of their unaccommodating nature.

This great political "Tamasha" about discussing the leaders' nature and personalities, instead of their performance and the working of the institutions is the outcome of the personality cult introduced by BJP in the country during 2014 parliamentary elections. The previous UPA govt. though, allegedly made some huge scams but didn't play much politics over personality and never projected an individual's larger-than-life image that surpassed the sanctity of the constitutional office he/ she is holding. But the worst thing about the 10 year UPA rule was that they institutionalized the extra-constitutional authority asserting itself over the second-highest constitutional office of the country and they live in denial about it even today.

In this era of personality politics, it is worth comparing the two big leaders of the sikh community whose names will be unforgettable in the history of Indian politics- Incumbent CM of Punjab S. Parkash Singh Badal and the former PM of India Dr. Manmohan Singh. This comparison is worthy because of a huge similarity between the two. Both these leaders have a good personal image of being hard-working and self-made gentlemen and practicing integrity to an extent, but none of them could stop their Cabinet Ministers from accumulating illicit fortunes and that too, very high on quantum. The projection of helplessness is greater in the case of CM, Mr. Badal as there're a lot of members of his family in his Cabinet and the ownership of their business empires has already entered the public domain. The scenario may be a bit different in the rest of the country but in Punjab, the scions of power-elites can be pin-pointed for hijacking all the top level executive, corporate and political positions, thus blocking the way of the talented and educated Punjabi youth to acquire those positions and barring them to serve on those positions with much more integrity and commitment and at a much lower allowance.

The huge side-effect of concentration of power in Punjab is the promotion of VVIP culture which further burdens the public exchequer for their lavish expenditure on security. Unfortunately, those considered to be the "Sewaks" (or the servants) of the "Panth" have completely forgotten the teachings of the "panth " which are rooted in a simple and a humble life-style. This leads us to another fact about the social and economic inequality prevailing in the state. People usually complain about the burden of draconian taxes and shutting down of the small scale business units but there is a flip side present to it which usually goes unnoticed. Majority of the capitalists in Punjab either have a political background or political patronage. Liquor and real-estate businesses are the best examples of political hijacking and bureaucratic blood-sucking.

Now, looking beyond the reflection of the present state of affairs, the upcoming assembly polls will not only give Punjabis a chance to topple the unsatisfactory performer but also to bring in fresh leadership with the zeal and enthusiasm to do good for them. Though, it won't be fair to predict the result of the elections right now, I would rather adopt a wait and watch policy for bringing in more objective articles on the subject till February 2017.