Punjab Assembly polls 2017 - Part III (Mission MALWA)

Before making any tall claims about formation of the govt. in Punjab, it is important to understand the region-wise distribution of Legislative Assembly seats in Punjab. Punjab comprises three regions namely Majha, Doaba and Malwa. There are 117 assembly constituencies in the state. The delimitation process in assembly segments has changed the number of constituencies in the regions benefiting the already dominant Malwa by increasing four seats two each from Majha and Doaba. This development not only increased the electoral importance of the region but also became beneficial to the SAD politically. It must be mentioned here that all the Chief Ministers of the state, except one, have been from Malwa region since the reorganization of Punjab in 1966. There has been a complete dominance of this region in state politics.

Region wise Seats

	Seats in 2007	Seats in 2012	Change
Majha	27	25	-2
Doaba	25	23	-2
Malwa	65	69	+4

So, a simple equation about winning the election and forming the government is to win over the Malwa region. Though in 2012 elections the SAD rebel and former Finance Minister of the state failed miserably to fetch even a single seat for "Sanjha Morcha" but hopes are high for Bhagwant Mann for the upcoming 2017 assembly polls. Coincidentally, both Manpreet Badal and Bhagwant Mann are also from the Malwa region making it not only the center of power but also the center for high political activism and political rebellion. Though Manpreet Badal lost by a small margin from Bathinda constituency and Mann made a huge victory from Sangrur constituency in the 2014 parliamentary elections, both of them will be the key players in 2017. Bhagwant Mann also broke away from PPP to join AAP and proved his decision worthy by winning the Sangrur constituency and becoming the leading face of AAP in Punjab and the most likely leader to be projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate for 2017 assembly polls. Though Mann's opportunism proved fruitful for him personally but such opportunism is justified to boost the political careers because even if we look at the careers of our last two Chief Ministers i.e. Capt. and Badal, both have switched political parties at some point of time in the initial stages of their political careers until they became established brands of Punjab politics. And thanks to the leaders like Badal, Tohra and Simranjit Singh Mann for the bifurcation of Shiromani Akali Dal into (B)- Badal faction and (A)- Amritsar faction.

The most interesting thing would be to notice that how Bhagwant Mann and Manpreet Badal will come together to win over Malwa region and make it their stronghold because they will definitely need each other's support to win over the astute SAD lead by Badal and Majithia and the unpredictable Congress lead by Captain and Bajwa.

I will definitely touch the economic aspect of Malwa region and the other dynamics of Punjab politics in my upcoming articles on this subject.