Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Punjab Assembly Polls 2017 - Part IX

A new article popped up in today's newspaper that is worth sharing and reflects the innumerable possibilities that can be anticipated for the upcoming polls. "Factionalism" within the political parties has acquired center stage in the pre-poll debacle to an extent that AAP has drastically reduced its scope for forming the next government in the state and Congress opening a new plethora of possibilities that shapes up the destiny of the state. The Captain-Bajwa clash has brought forward some shocking revelations.


In the race of being projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate by the party, these two leaders have come to the verge of giving a completely different angle to Punjab politics. Capt Amrinder Singh has the support of 30 out of 43 Congress MLA's who want him to lead the party in the upcoming polls whereas Bajwa claims that the number will be reduced to 20 as Captain is looking forward to break-away from Congress and launch his own new party named as PVP (Punjab Vikas Party). Bajwa can't be considered anywhere below when he makes an alarming prophecy about the 2017 elections outcome by saying, "After Bihar poll results which pollsters say BJP will win, Captain will form his PVP. BJP will split from Akalis. Captain will then pullback some legislators that he has loaned to Akalis, bringing Akalis in minority in the state assembly. The BJP will then impose President's rule in Punjab, rule by proxy until October next before declaring elections."

Bajwa's prophecy though has not been acknowledged by Captain or any other bigwigs of Punjab politics but it gave me goose bumps. It  made me nervous and worried on one hand but also hopeful on the other hand. But one thing Bajwa didn't realize before saying it was the AAP factor which is missing in Bihar Assembly polls and is a very prominent factor in Punjab Assembly polls. Also their back-end campaign of tying up with other parties to restrain AAP from forming the next government became more clear to me when the moderator of his FB page added me as a member to the FB group called "Punjab against AAP" where workers of different parties have joined hands against AAP.

On the other hand if we consider the possibility of Captain breaking away from Congress and forming PVP, then that would seem a more viable option than AAP in the interest of Punjab because at this juncture AAP seems too naive to govern Punjab as it is the state with one of the most complicated polities in the country and it shouldn't be left in the hands of novice leaders for governance. It is very certain that Captain will get the support of 20+ congress MLA's if he breaks away but still reaching that magical figure of 59 won't be possible for him alone. It will be possible only if some established leaders from other political parties breakaway from their own parties and join hands with him and also the freshly recruited AAP leaders having the potential to fetch seats breakaway and join him. My gut feeling says that if at all PVP comes into existence, the first two leaders to break away from BJP and join him would be the Sidhu Couple out of their family ties they share with Captain and more importantly out of the alleged humiliation and harassment they have faced from the SAD-BJP alliance.


Now that would be an interesting turnaround in Punjab politics as this couple can not only provide the star power and charisma to any party that they associate themselves with but they can also ensure institutional loyalty and youth power and can actually sweep a chunk of youth vote bank that has a vital role to play in the upcoming polls. Another possibility that can be adopted by the SAD to counter them would be to project Harsimrat Kaur Badal, a female leader, a national figure by virtue of her being the Union Cabinet Minister also the daughter-in-law of the Badal clan, as the Chief Ministerial candidate but that would violate the patriarchal structure of SAD and could hurt the "Alpha-male" images of Sukhbir and Majithia. Hence, SAD has the possibility of seeing a white-wash in 2017 if they don't do anything extraordinary.

I promise to keep pouring in more articles on the subject with the hope that they're touching people's lives and making a positive difference in the political space of my home state.

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